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BFCM Revenue Projector

Four inputs, one minute. We take last year's BFCM revenue, credit the list you've built since, and project what this Black Friday should do. Then we show you the number that matters more: what the same season is worth if you close your email gap before November.

What did BFCM do for you last year? (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday)

How much has your email list grown since last BFCM?

In Klaviyo: compare your subscribed profile count today against last November. Most brands that run a popup year round land between +20% and +50%.

What % of your revenue comes from email + SMS today?

15%

In Klaviyo: Analytics, then Attributed revenue, divided by store revenue for the same period. If you genuinely don't know, most brands that haven't checked sit at 10-15%.

What do you sell?

Projected BFCM revenue this year

$101,900

at your current 15% email share

If you close the email gap before November

$123,300

+$9,200 to +$21,400 on top of the baseline

That's moving your email share from 15% to the Other / General average (20-28%) at the low end, or the top quartile (32-40%) at the high end, applied to this single BFCM window.

Below average email share for your vertical

How we got this number

  • · Last BFCM: $100,000, of which 15% came from email/SMS
  • · Your email-driven slice grows with your list (+25%), counted at half value because new subscribers convert less in their first peak season
  • · The non-email slice is held flat, which keeps the baseline conservative
  • · The upside band applies your vertical's benchmark email share to the projected season

Benchmarks come from the Klaviyo accounts we manage across 150+ eCommerce brands. During BFCM week email share usually runs at or above its evergreen level, so treating these as the ceiling is conservative. What the projection can't see is execution: deliverability, flow coverage, and segmentation decide whether the upside actually lands.

Close the gap before November, start with a free auditNot sure where the gap is? Run the readiness scorecard

Why the gap has to close before November, not during it

Almost everything that moves email share needs lead time. A better popup compounds through October traffic. Flows need testing volume before peak week. Deliverability warms up over weeks, and a domain that starts warming in mid-November lands in spam on the one weekend it can't afford to. That's why our BFCM playbook starts in September: the projection above is only real if the work behind it starts now.

Want the projection checked against your actual account?

The projector works from benchmarks. Whether your account can actually capture the upside depends on flow coverage, segment health, and deliverability, which is exactly what the free Klaviyo audit checks: a written audit delivered within 48 hours, and you keep the findings whether we work together or not. August and September are when an audit still leaves time to act on it.

How the projection works

We split last year's BFCM into its email-driven slice and everything else. The email slice grows with your list, counted at half value for subscribers who joined since last November, because first-season subscribers convert below your established list. The rest is held flat. The upside band then applies your vertical's average and top-quartile email share, the same benchmarks behind our leak calculator, to the projected season.

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